About:

A recovering efficient markets believer now profiting from human irrationality, sharing insights via Substack.

Website:

Specializations:

Interests:

Efficient markets Human irrationality

Outgoing Links:

Subscribe to RSS:
The post advocates for alternative ordering mechanisms in prediction markets to improve efficiency and liquidity, highlighting the limitations of the current FCFS model.
Axiom's rapid rise to $100M in revenue in under a year illustrates a new archetype for startups in the crypto space, emphasizing unique strategies and market dynamics.
The post examines the distinction between idea-driven and data-driven ideas, highlighting how data-driven concepts facilitate rapid growth and coordination while posing unique risks.
Intent-based aggregators are transforming prediction markets by allowing users to outsource transaction creation while ensuring better price discovery and liquidity.
The delayed product-market fit of prediction markets is attributed to regulatory challenges, cultural shifts, and evolving demand for truth in a low-trust society.
The post provides an in-depth analysis of the global financial system, focusing on how financial markets price, transfer, and distribute risk. It explains the mechanics of trading assets through electronic order books, the roles o...
Justin Kuiper shares insights on YouTube's algorithm, content creation strategies, and the evolving landscape of video content in an interview discussing the balance between audience expectations and content quality.
The post analyzes the lack of insightful anti-Straussian content and the social dynamics that favor Straussian behavior among influential individuals.
Religion, institutions, and AI serve as elite-controlled black boxes for outsourcing thought, while prediction markets offer a bottom-up alternative for aggregating intelligence.
The post examines how companies use 'Blame as a Service' to outsource accountability for unpopular decisions while preserving their brand image.
The post critiques the stagnant interfaces of Polymarket and Kalshi, outlining six key problems and proposing innovative solutions for prediction market design.
Prediction market prices reflect user perceptions and currency value rather than actual probabilities, leading to potential discrepancies in expected outcomes.
High salaries for seemingly low-effort roles are justified by their potential impact on company output, as explained through the concept of 'derivative levels.'
The post discusses the dynamics of financial markets, focusing on the success factors for exchanges and brokerages. It highlights the importance of liquidity network effects over social network effects, the impact of regulation on...
The post advocates for revitalizing the blogosphere through community support and innovative funding mechanisms to encourage new and existing bloggers.
The post examines the persistent design flaws of the YouTube search bar, proposing that they may reflect Google's deliberate choice to signal its market dominance.
The post analyzes how different levels of derivative work affect compensation, life satisfaction, and the dynamics of professional relationships, emphasizing the challenges faced by higher-level workers.
The post critiques the 'agency-maxxing' trend, arguing that while effort is key to success, it can lead to unrealistic expectations and burnout.
The author examines the psychological and biological reasons for their late-night productivity, ultimately revealing a humorous solution: having children to reset their schedule.
Physical presence is essential for genuine learning and connection, revealing cultural histories and fostering relationships that drive personal and professional growth.
The author reflects on their most productive month of blogging, November, during which they published 30 posts totaling 28,427 words. They discuss various topics covered, including prediction markets and personal productivity insi...
Understanding audience sizes on the internet through physical analogies helps creators appreciate the real people behind the numbers, fostering authenticity in their work.
Late night conversations foster deeper connections through reduced ambiguity, increased honesty, and a sense of intimacy, making them more fulfilling and memorable.
High agency individuals are characterized by their dissatisfaction with norms, quick responsiveness, and unique perspectives, but true agency cannot be easily cultivated or imitated.