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Ben writes The BS Detector newsletter, sharing personal views and forecasts.

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The post explores the historical context and political dynamics behind the awarding of the Nobel Peace Prize, particularly focusing on the Norwegian Nobel Committee's motivations and selections. It traces the evolution of democrat...
The blog post discusses Marathon Fusion's recent announcement regarding their innovative approach to producing gold through fusion energy. The company claims that by using mercury in fusion reactors, they can generate gold as a by...
The post examines the challenges and potential consequences of AI's influence on scientific publishing, emphasizing the need for reform in how research quality is assessed.
The author critiques a recent Consumer Reports investigation on lead levels in protein powders, arguing that the report is misleading and based on flawed methodology. They highlight errors in the interpretation of safety guideline...
The blog post discusses the implications of AI's potential for superhuman persuasion, particularly in the context of a market experiment where the author, Ben, was persuaded by users of Manifold Markets to resolve a market in favo...
The text discusses a preprint from MIT Media Lab about the effects of using an AI assistant for essay writing tasks. It critiques the interpretation of the research by the media and highlights the limitations of the study. The aut...
The article discusses a fraudulent research paper on the impact of AI tools on materials researchers at a US-based firm. The author, Aidan Toner-Rodgers, used sophisticated methodologies to analyze the effects of AI tools on produ...
The post discusses the search for extraterrestrial intelligence, focusing on the observation of alien space trash. It evaluates the properties of 'Oumuamua, the first observed interstellar visitor, and the theory that it is alien ...
The text discusses the asteroid 2024 YR4 and the potential impact on Earth. It explains the Torino scale and proposes a new scale, the Turin scale, to measure the risk of asteroid impacts. It also mentions the Vera C. Rubin Observ...
The International Seabed Authority has not made progress in deep-sea mining in 30 years. The Metals Company plans to harvest polymetallic nodules from the seafloor. A study claims that these nodules produce oxygen, but the researc...
The author discusses the benefits of competitive forecasting and shares their experience organizing a prediction contest in their graduate school department. They recommend the process and highlight the accuracy of the forecasts. ...
The PlasticList team, led by Nat Friedman, tested hundreds of food products for plastic-related compounds and released their report. The report explains the methodology and data limitations, and the uncertainties in testing for th...
The author created a spreadsheet to track the status of executive orders and memoranda from the last few days, providing summaries, implementation status, likelihood of being blocked, and forecasted impact. The author plans to upd...
The author announces the launch of their email newsletter and blog, expressing excitement about the freedom to write more informally and express their ideas without the constraints of academic publishing. They also mention upcomin...