The post examines Jay Powell's defense against political pressure from the Trump administration and the implications for the Federal Reserve's future leadership and independence.
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Claudia Sahm is an economist focused on policy, known for the Sahm Rule, with experience at the Fed and White House.
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The post analyzes the economic risks posed by Middle Eastern conflicts and higher oil prices, emphasizing the uncertainty surrounding potential recession scenarios in the U.S. economy.
Trust in economic data is crucial, and while agencies like the BLS strive for accuracy, public perception often diverges from reported statistics due to personal experiences.
The U.S. labor market is experiencing stagnation with low job growth and rising unemployment, raising concerns despite the absence of a recession.
Kevin Warsh's nomination as Fed Chair prompts scrutiny of his monetary policy views and his ability to navigate the complexities of economic recovery and Fed independence.
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In her talk at the Forecasters Club of New York, Claudia Sahm discusses the current state of the labor market, which she describes as a 'curious kind of balance' characterized by a slowdown in both labor supply and demand. She hig...
Fed Chair Powell warns of the challenging balance the Federal Reserve faces between controlling inflation and supporting employment. The risk of political interference in the Fed's operations is heightened, particularly with Presi...
The blog post discusses the implications of President Trump's attempts to exert control over the Federal Reserve, particularly in light of the Senate confirmation hearing for Stephen Miran as Fed Governor. It explores the concept ...
The blog post discusses recent economic data indicating a slowdown in job growth, with significant downward revisions for May and June. It highlights the complexities of interpreting labor market changes amidst policy shifts, such...
The blog post discusses the implications of President Trump's scrutiny of the Federal Reserve's $2.5 billion renovation project, highlighting concerns over Fed independence in monetary policy. It explains the importance of an inde...
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The Federal Reserve is maintaining the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.5% while emphasizing the importance of transparency in its decision-making amid economic changes and political scrutiny. The Fed is urged to utilize 'so...
The blog post discusses the importance of Federal Reserve (Fed) independence in light of President Trump's criticisms and threats regarding Fed Chair Jerome Powell. It highlights the risks of political interference in monetary pol...
The recent Fed meetings highlighted uncertainty regarding inflation and growth, with risks leaning towards stagflation. A new 25% tariff on imported vehicles is expected to contribute to inflation, but Fed officials believe this i...
The blog post discusses Fed Chair Powell's upcoming speech at Jackson Hole, focusing on the economic outlook and the review of the Fed's monetary policy framework. It highlights the challenges the Fed faces with slower job growth ...
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The U.S. economic outlook has worsened due to concerns about lower growth and higher inflation, exacerbated by federal government layoffs and contract cancellations from the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). While DOGE's...
The January Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.47%, exceeding expectations, with core CPI also showing a concerning increase. Despite this, experts suggest that one month of data should not lead to panic, as previous January spi...
The Supreme Court has delayed a decision regarding the White House's attempt to remove Lisa Cook from her position as a Fed Governor, allowing her to remain in her role for now. This delay is seen as beneficial for maintaining the...
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The author corrects a previous discussion regarding Producer Price Index (PPI) trade services, acknowledging that acquisition costs include tariffs on imported goods. The PPI measures revenue changes for goods and services, focusi...
The employment report indicates a significant job revision but highlights a rebound in hiring and a decrease in the unemployment rate to 4.3%.
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