Moscow's reflagging of the Bella 1 was part of a failed strategy to create a fleet capable of circumventing U.S. sanctions on Venezuelan oil, revealing significant Kremlin miscalculations.
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Craig Kennedy explores Russia's history and political economy, focusing on its oil industry and civil society.
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New Western sanctions on Russian oil are set to drastically reduce Moscow's revenues and complicate its war funding strategy amid ongoing economic challenges.
0Moscow’s Fading Shadow Fleet: Russian Oil Revenues are More Vulnerable than Ever.
2025-05-07 • trade sanctions energy market russia maritime lng oil and gas industry western technology shadow fleet oil trade and sanctions gazprom tanker operations ukraine, kyiv policymaker russian economy and sanctions
The text discusses the impact of recent sanctions on Russia's shadow fleet, which has reduced the country's oil export capacity. The author, a former investment banker, explains how this has made Russia more reliant on mainstream ...
The report identifies Russia's reliance on off-budget debt to fund its war efforts, causing systemic credit risk and adverse consequences at home. The off-budget funding scheme has helped limit defense spending in the budget, but ...
0Russia’s Hidden War Debt
2025-01-11 •
The report 'Russia’s Hidden War Debt' reveals that Russia has been stealthily funding its war costs through a low-profile, off-budget financing scheme, equal in size to the defense budget. This has led to a surge in corporate borr...
The report proposes a way to reduce Russian shadow fleet operations in European waters by pressuring vessels to comply with international insurance standards. It involves a coordinated effort by European coastal states to request ...
The upcoming report highlights the crisis in Russia's shadow fleet, which has been facing economic challenges and sanctions. The fleet's growth has stalled, and the acquisition of aging tankers has been the main driver of expansio...
0The De-Kastri Mystery
2024-01-15 •
Recent developments suggest that Russia's oil export terminal at De-Kastri is facing challenges due to sanctions and a campaign by price-cap coalition countries to step up pressure on intermediaries in the shadow oil trade. The te...
0Dangerous Waters
2023-12-13 •
Recent OFAC sanctions have focused on Russian shadow tankers, putting up to half of Moscow's vessels at risk of blocking orders. The Kremlin's shadow fleet was designed to legally circumvent the price cap, but Moscow got careless,...
0Measuring the Shadows
2023-08-23 •
This analytical report assesses on-going Russian efforts to circumvent the price cap and recommends high-impact measures for implementing oil sanctions more effectively. It discusses the impact of oil sanctions on Russia, the stra...
0Putin’s Looming Tanker Crisis
2022-10-19 •
The essay discusses the impact of sanctions on Russia's oil exports, focusing on the vulnerability of its seaborne oil supply chain and the looming tanker crisis. It highlights the deficiencies in Russia's oil export system, the i...
0Putin's Dilemma (essay in Politico)
2022-04-27 •
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0Russian Oil's Achilles Heel
2022-04-08 •
The text discusses the impact of sanctions on Russian oil exports and the potential for a full embargo. It proposes a smart embargo option to enhance the economic impact of oil sanctions while mitigating their harmful effects on t...
0Coming soon
2022-03-03 •
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