The post argues that increasing political constraints may diminish market complexity, risking their adaptability and resilience in the face of change.
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Using the Fractal Market Hypothesis to map uncertainty, inflation and 'Minsky' stock, bond and commodity market cycles and regimes.
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The post examines the Fed's conflicting mandates and emphasizes the often-ignored importance of financial stability in the current economic climate.
The post argues for a gradualist approach to monetary policy by the Fed, emphasizing its effectiveness in uncertain economic conditions.
The complexity of sandpiles offers insights into the challenges of monetary policy and the consequences of over-tightening during inflationary times.
The blog post discusses the Mad Magazine board game 'What-Me Worry?' and its unique approach to gameplay, contrasting it with traditional board games like Monopoly. It highlights the game's objective of losing money and its incorp...
In his speech at Jackson Hole, Fed Chair Jerome Powell emphasized that the Federal Reserve is more concerned about employment than inflation, indicating that at least one rate cut is forthcoming. He discussed the new 2025 Longer-r...
The post examines how the recent Middle East war disrupts market stability, highlighting the difference between endogenous and exogenous factors in market regime shifts.
A non-predictive analysis of market uncertainties for 2026, highlighting four significant events and offering a unique perspective on associated risks.
Uncertainty is crucial for the evolution of free markets, presenting opportunities for growth despite the risks faced by individual investors.
The post discusses the recent downturn in the US stock market, comparing it to a previous significant drop known as Liberation Day, which was triggered by massive tariffs on Chinese goods. The author questions whether the current ...
The blog post discusses the implications of the US government shutdown on economic data collection, highlighting that while essential services continue, non-essential services, including the collection of economic statistics, are ...
5.1Blog: AI Spending and Bubbles
2025-09-29 • technology stock market economics bubble ai
The post discusses a newly identified characteristic of stock market bubbles, specifically in relation to the current AI arms race among tech companies. The author, Edgar E Peters, compares the current situation to historical bubb...
The post discusses the current state of market bubbles, emphasizing that while all bubble markets are overvalued, not all overvalued markets qualify as bubbles. The author reflects on the cultural impact of bubbles, citing the Tec...
The post discusses the recent regulation of stablecoins by the US Congress, highlighting their role in mitigating cryptocurrency volatility by being backed by stable assets like the US Dollar and gold. The author expresses skeptic...
The post examines the role of indices in data measurement and their importance in scientific methods, highlighting their utility in precise calculations.
The blog post discusses how market participants have been conditioned to react to certain financial signals, likening their behavior to Pavlov's dogs. It highlights common trading rules that are often assumed to be reliable, such ...
The blog post discusses the implications of Newton's Third Law of Motion in the context of economics, particularly focusing on the effects of the President's trade and immigration policies. It highlights how the simplicity of Newt...
The blog post discusses the recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and its implications regarding tariff inflation. It highlights the varying interpretations of inflation data, drawing a parallel to the 1950 film 'Rashomon' by A...
The blog post discusses the potential impact of a recession on employment, particularly how firms may replace high-paid, protected workers with AI. The author reflects on their working-class upbringing and their father's journey f...
The blog post discusses how the concept of housing 'affordability' varies based on one's economic class, drawing from the author's personal experience growing up in a working-class background. It references a talk by Dr. Robert Sh...
The text discusses the lack of reaction in the bond market to the new Middle East Crisis, drawing a parallel to a Sherlock Holmes story. It suggests that the lack of reaction may be a clue in itself.
The author discusses the significance of language and jargon, particularly the word 'transitory' used by Fed Chair Jerome Powell to describe supply shock inflation. The author reflects on the impact of language on society and expr...
The text discusses the dangers of complex decision making in the stock market, particularly in relation to the current situation with tariff threats and inflation risks. It highlights the tendency for humans to make poor decisions...
0The Fed's Dueling Mandates
2025-05-12 •
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