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Jacob Bayless is a Canadian engineer and consultant specializing in feedback systems and motors.

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Probability Applied control theory Systems thinking

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The progress of computing has provided engineers with powerful tools like finite element method modeling, Monte Carlo simulations, and machine-learning frameworks. The author argues that while these tools are amazing, there are si...
The article discusses the concept of chaos and control, and how chaos can be controlled and leveraged to improve control. It explains the discovery of chaos in the 19th century and its impact on physics and engineering. The articl...
The author, Jacob Bayless, is offering free consulting sessions for anyone who needs help with a project or has questions about engineering. He is a professional engineer and not a full-time Substack writer. The post also includes...
The text discusses the misconception that GPT-4 is 'just statistics' and argues that it is more than that. It presents a mathematical argument and a reproducible experiment to demonstrate that GPT-4 can learn the underlying proces...
The text discusses the process of designing tensile structures from fabric and inflated structures using FreeCAD and Python. The author explains the challenges and the process of creating 2D designs that result in the desired 3D s...
The article discusses the concerns about the safety of AI and the need for a pause in its development. It highlights the risks associated with the development of artificial general intelligence (AGI) and the potential dangers it p...
The text discusses the challenges of estimating the completion time of software development tasks, using a real-life example of a project that took much longer than expected. It introduces Hofstadter's Law, which states that tasks...
The text discusses the role of shelter costs in Canada and the United States in relation to inflation. The author, an engineer, hypothesizes about the impact of interest rates on inflation and shares mathematical models and projec...
The text discusses the relationship between the Kalman filter and low-pass filters, explaining that the Kalman filter can become a low-pass filter for certain systems. It also explores the differences between the two types of filt...
The text discusses the Kalman filter as an efficient alternative to the purely Bayesian approach in identifying the coordinates of a moving ship. It explains the prediction step of the Kalman filter and its connection to Bayesian ...
The text discusses the challenges of dealing with unstable systems, whether linear or nonlinear, and the importance of good controller design to keep them under control. It explains the concept of right-half-plane zeros and poles,...
The text discusses the Kalman filter, its applications, and limitations. It explains how the filter updates on data, and how it can be used as an approximation even when its assumptions are not fully met. The author also introduce...
The article discusses the lighthouse problem and how to deduce the position of a lighthouse using data analysis. It explains the process of predicting data, inverting the relationship to draw inferences, and using Bayes' theorem t...
The text discusses the application of probability in real-life situations, particularly in dealing with uncertainty. It emphasizes the use of Gaussian distribution and maximum entropy to represent knowledge and uncertainty. The au...
The article discusses the impact of shelter inflation on the Canadian economy. The author, an engineer, uses control systems theory to analyze the relationship between housing prices, mortgage costs, and shelter inflation. The art...
The text discusses the concept of right-half-plane zeros in control theory, explaining how they affect dynamical systems and the potential dangers they pose. It uses relatable examples to illustrate the concept and emphasizes the ...
The text discusses the fallacy of assuming causation from correlation, using examples from economics and thermodynamics. It explains that correlation does not imply causation, and that even the absence of correlation is not enough...
The text discusses the work of physicist Edwin Thompson Jaynes, who wrote about probability theory and Bayesianism. The author adopts Jaynes' viewpoint and conventions in his own writing, finding them logical and persuasive. The t...
The text discusses the history and flaws of the decibel as a unit of measure, and the potential for errors in its use. It also highlights the importance of being unambiguous about units in engineering applications.
Jacob Bayless introduces his newsletter These Are Systems, where he will discuss applied control systems and systems thinking. He invites readers to engage in polite and respectful discussions about various subjects from an analyt...