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Mike "Mish" Shedlock is a macro-economic writer and photographer with interests in economics and photography.

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Kevin Warsh argues that the Federal Reserve's actions have enabled fiscal irresponsibility, leading to monetary dominance that undermines its independence and legitimacy.
President Trump pressures the media with accusations of treason and lies, aiming to suppress critical coverage of his military actions in Iran.
Trump's contradictory calls for military assistance against Iran reveal the complexities of modern warfare and the economic strain of drone warfare on U.S. military resources.
The BEA's revision of the fourth-quarter 2025 GDP estimate from 1.4% to 0.7% highlights significant economic weakening, driven by declines in key spending areas.
The post critiques Trump's military strategy against Iran, emphasizing the risks of air power alone and the evolving views of Iranians on foreign intervention following recent conflicts.
The post critiques the Federal Reserve's interest rate strategy, suggesting that unexpected economic factors could lead to rate hikes despite prevailing forecasts.
The post predicts a rise in CPI inflation over the next few months, driven by difficult month-over-month comparisons and a divergence from PCE inflation metrics.
The SAVE Act is effectively dead due to lack of Senate support and the potential for unconstitutional consequences, despite misconceptions about a talking filibuster.
Trump's contradictory claims about the Iran war reveal a desperate plea for international support after alienating allies through his previous rhetoric and actions.
The ruling quashing subpoenas against Fed Chair Powell is seen as a defense of Fed independence, with Senator Tillis criticizing the investigation as frivolous and politically motivated.
AI-related spending significantly influenced the fourth quarter GDP of 2025, contributing 0.81 percentage points despite a decline in overall economic growth.
Trump's rapid reversal on oil release amid the Iran war raises questions about decision-making and the effectiveness of such interventions in stabilizing prices.
Bitcoin's current consolidation phase presents conflicting technical signals, leaning towards a bearish outlook with potential for significant price drops.
Trump's erratic statements about the Iran war's end reflect a dangerous reliance on intuition over strategy, leading to rising tensions and oil prices.
The divergence between CPI and PCE inflation indexes poses significant challenges for the Federal Reserve, complicating its interest rate decisions amid rising inflation pressures.
The Pentagon is deploying a Marine Expeditionary Unit to the Middle East as tensions with Iran escalate, raising concerns about potential conflict.
Germany and other nations are openly rejecting Trump's demands for military support, signaling a significant shift in international relations and trust in U.S. leadership.
The post critiques the U.S. administration's handling of the Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, emphasizing the absurdity of their claims and actions.
Trump targets Rep. Thomas Massie in a bid to replace him with Ed Gallrein, amid significant GOP infighting and financial backing from super PACs.
Trump's remarks on rising oil prices as beneficial for the U.S. economy are examined, revealing potential political strategies and contradictions in his messaging.
The post highlights the recent attacks on commercial ships near the Strait of Hormuz, questioning Trump's claims of victory in the Iran conflict amidst rising oil prices.
Trump questions U.S. military presence in Iran, criticizes media manipulation, and calls for European support while attacking the Federal Reserve and judicial bias.
The 21st Century ROAD to Housing Act, while bipartisan, may worsen housing affordability by limiting new construction and increasing rental costs.
Fertilizer prices are surging due to geopolitical tensions, prompting calls for tariff removal and highlighting the impact on U.S. agriculture and foreign policy.