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Paul Kedrosky is a researcher and author interested in risk, complexity, finance, technology, AI, and economic history.
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Silicon Valley, originally founded on military funding, is experiencing a resurgence of defense influence as AI development grows increasingly reliant on military contracts.
The post discusses how AI can lead to a 'ghost economy' where GDP rises despite declining labor income, creating a cycle of reduced consumption and increased automation.
AI and climate change are exacerbating risks in the insurance industry, with rising catastrophe losses linked to increased asset density in high-risk areas.
Recent advancements in AI tools signal a shift in value from models to orchestration layers, indicating a potential commoditization of AI capabilities.
Recent trends reveal private AI companies could dominate the S&P 500, while major tech stocks struggle and AI impacts productivity and skills development.
Data center construction spending in the U.S. has overtaken office construction for the first time, reflecting a significant shift in investment priorities influenced by AI and remote work trends.
Prediction markets are attracting significant attention, with over $100 million traded in Oscar contracts, due to their uncorrelated nature and appeal to hedge funds.
Key trends from the week include AI's military ties, SaaS market declines, and record heat waves in the Western U.S., alongside economic concerns like retail margin debt.
The post summarizes key developments in AI, technology, and their societal implications, including the Dunning-Kruger effect in LLMs and advancements in CPU design.
Recent notes highlight a record-breaking heat wave in the U.S., rising retail margin debt, and significant developments in AI and robotics.
An interactive simulator helps users analyze the economic impact of oil price shocks on key metrics like GDP growth and inflation.
The post outlines key insights on US productivity growth, revenue-sharing models, the geopolitical significance of data centers, and misconceptions in AI tech lending.
Captive insurers play a crucial role in parent organizations' contributions, while recent headlines reveal significant developments in AI and market expectations.
Fed Governor Waller points out unusual job losses outside recessions, while discussions on energy regulation and critiques of anti-SaaS arguments highlight ongoing industry debates.
The post examines the influence of major tech stocks on the S&P 500 and explores the implications of AI capital expenditures on GDP and employment trends.
Recent trends highlight a decline in interest for coding agents, Microsoft's financial metrics aligning with Exxon, and a peak in US IT investment as a percentage of GDP.
The blog post covers the decline of Cursor, the stabilization of U.S. egg prices, and the rise of catastrophe bonds in response to AI risks.
AI capital expenditures are expected to drive substantial Q4 GDP growth, while enterprise software switching costs and Blue Owl's liquidity issues highlight broader economic challenges.
The post covers the resurgence of Warner Brothers' bidding war, Japan's robotics adoption due to demographic pressures, and the employment inefficiencies of data centers.
Chartbook Live revolutionizes access to over 10,000 charts by indexing them for easy search and introducing new features for subscribers.
The post covers significant advancements in token production, market experimentation, record ETF launches, and Cursor's revenue growth in the tech sector.
The blog post highlights China's abortion statistics, Anthropic's competitive practices, Zvi's critique of Amodei's interview, and the ongoing value of human touch in various industries.
The post analyzes AI's influence on US productivity, forecasts the future of major tech stocks, and discusses AI's impact on entry-level job opportunities.
Current credit card interest rates are near record highs, driven by the Fed's rate hikes to combat inflation and lenders adjusting their margins.