The author discusses using GPT embeddings to build a smart search tool for their second brain note-taking system. They explain the basics of GPT, the process of using GPT embeddings for semantic search, and the technical implement...
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Robert is a former physicist now in finance, interested in complex systems and improving learning methods.
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The text discusses the practical implementation of Molecular Notes in Obsidian, including the organisation of the Second Brain, the choice of software, and the process of learning from different sources. It also provides detailed ...
The post introduces Molecular Notes, a note-taking system created by the author to help learn from diverse sources, distil insights, and synthesise new ideas. It discusses the concept of Second Brains and the principles of Molecul...
The post discusses the concept of convexity in DCFs, highlighting that increased uncertainty about an asset’s fundamentals can sometimes be beneficial. It explores the use of distributional inputs in DCFs and the impact of uncerta...
The author shares their philosophy of reading books, focusing on non-fiction and the importance of retention, understanding, and contextualization. They discuss their reading workflow, including the use of spaced repetition, book ...
The post discusses the cognitive bias called probability matching and its rationality from a population perspective. It explains how probability matching is suboptimal from an individual level but may be rational from a population...
The post is a comprehensive discussion of how the author uses Notion to organise various aspects of their life, including project management, reading, academics, plans/goals, and investing. The author explains the philosophy of No...
The post discusses hypothesis testing in quantitative finance, focusing on the p-value and its interpretation. It provides a case study on ETF seasonality and explains how to set up experiments using Monte Carlo simulations. The k...
0COVID-19 Beta
2025-03-12 • finance stock market covid-19 market trends s&p 500
The post discusses the impact of COVID-19 on the stock market, particularly the S&P500 index. It provides a detailed account of the market's response to the pandemic, the rebound of the market, and the effect on different sectors ...
The post discusses the construction of probability distributions of prices for the underlying asset using option prices. It explains the limiting case of butterfly spreads and the industry-standard approach for constructing PDFs f...
The post discusses the concept of option-implied probability distributions and how they can be used to infer implied expectations of future performance. It explains the relationship between call option prices and the PDF of future...
The text is a work-in-progress checklist for equity investing, aiming to provide transparency and accountability. It outlines the steps involved in equity investing, from narrowing down the investment universe to pulling the trigg...
The post critically examines Joel Greenblatt's Magic Formula for investing, discussing its philosophy, procedure, and performance. It looks at the quality and cheapness factors, the ROC and EBIT/EV, and the backtesting results. Th...
The post investigates the short positions of hedge funds in UK equities, exploring the value of the data and the significance of the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) dataset. It discusses the process of data cleaning and explorat...
The post discusses the concept of closed-end funds (CEFs) and why they often trade at a discount to their net asset value (NAV). It explores whether this could be the basis for an algorithmic trading strategy. It also delves into ...
The post discusses the volatile oil market in April 2020, focusing on the use of oil tankers as floating storage units. It aims to build a framework for forecasting the revenue of DHT Holdings, a tanker company, using Excel models...
The post discusses the importance of market expectations in asset pricing and how to quantify the future prospects of an asset based on its current price. It explains the Discounted Cash Flows (DCFs) and how to value the S&P500 in...
The author discusses the process of rebuilding PyPortfolioOpt, an open-source portfolio optimization software library, after a user raised an issue on the GitHub repository. The issue led to a ground-up rebuild of a large chunk of...
The post discusses the Black-Litterman (BL) method and its application in algorithmic trading. It explains the standard portfolio optimization method and how BL improves it by using a Bayesian scheme to construct expected returns....
The post discusses the concept of making asymmetric bets on interest rates, using the example of a student's pitch for an asymmetric bet on US interest rates in July 2019. The student proposed a hawkish bet, betting that interest ...